कैसे बनें शेयरों के शेर? जानें शॉर्ट टर्म ट्रेडिंग मंत्र

कैसे बनें शेयरों के शेर? जानें शॉर्ट टर्म ट्रेडिंग मंत्र
नवंबर-दिसंबर के दौरान अक्सर शेयरों में ज्यादा उतार-चढ़ाव रहता है। फॉरेन इंस्टिट्यूशनल इनवेस्टर (एफआईआई) इस दौरान खुलकर बाजार में हाथ आजमाते हैं। दरअसल, उनके फंड की क्लोजिंग दिसंबर तक चलती है और वे ज्यादा रिटर्न के चक्कर में रहते हैं। स्लोडाउन के बुरे दौर के बाद इस बार शेयर बाजार में कुछ ज्यादा घट-बढ़ देखने को मिल रही है। यह घटबढ़ अगले महीने भी जारी रह सकती है। ऐसे दौर में रिटेल इनवेस्टर को चाहिए कि रिस्क कम लें और समझदारी से शॉर्ट टर्म रणनीति बनाकर कारोबार करें।

1. छोटी तेजियों को पकड़ें

ऐसे दौर में जब एक दिन शेयरों में मंदी के भारी झटके लगें और दूसरे दिन शेयर नई ऊंचाइयां चढ़ जाएं, तो रिटेल इनवेस्टरों को उन शेयरों में हाथ आजमाना चाहिए, जिनमें उतार-चढ़ाव कम हुआ है। इन शेयरों को गिरने पर खरीद लेना चाहिए। जब ये शेयर चढ़ें, तो बेच दें। इन शेयरों को खरीदने का फायदा यह होगा कि इन शेयरों के ज्यादा गिरने का रिस्क आपको नहीं डराएगा। कुछ समय तक गिरने के बाद इन शेयरों का बढ़ना तय है। ऐसे में आप इन्हें बेचकर मुनाफा कमा सकते हैं। डीएसई के पूर्व अध्यक्ष बी. बी. साहनी का कहना है कि छोटी तेज वाले शेयरों में इनवेस्टमेंट ऐसे दौर में सबसे सेफ होता है।

2. प्रॉफिट मार्जिन रहे कम

रिटेल इनवेस्टर झटके तभी खाते हैं, जब वे बड़े प्रॉफिट के चक्कर में पड़ते हैं। ज्यादा बढ़ने की चाहत में वे कई बारे शेयरों को होल्ड करके रख लेते हैं। अचानक पता चलता है कि मुनाफा वसूली की वजह से शेयर बुरी तरह गिर गए। ऐसे में जरूरी है कि शॉर्ट टर्म मुनाफा वसूली करते समय प्रॉफिट माजिर्न कम करें। शेयरों को निचले स्तर पर खरीदें और 5 से 10 पसेर्ंट के प्रॉफिट पर बेच दें। विनायक इंक के सीएमडी विजय सिंह का कहना है कि खरीदने और बेचने की छोटी रैलियां चलाएं। मुनाफा कम मिलने पर अगर कारोबारी रैलियां ज्यादा संख्या में होंगी, तो प्रॉफिट कवर हो जाएगा।

3. झटकों पर रखें ध्यान

मुनाफा कमाने के लिए शेयर बाजार में होने वाले झटकों पर ध्यान रखना जरूरी है, न कि बड़े चढ़ाव पर। जब भारी झटके लगें, तो देखें कि कौन-कौन से शेयर कितने गिरे हैं। शेयरों की गिरावट की तुलना उनकी पिछली गिरावट से करें। शेयरों के निचले स्तर का पता लगाएं। जो शेयर ज्यादा गिरे हैं और पहले की तुलना में निचले स्तर पर पहुंच गए हैं, उन्हें खरीदना फायदेमंद है। ऐसे शेयर दो-तीन कारोबारी दिनों के दौरान ही फिर तेजी पकड़ लेते हैं या पुराने स्तर पर आ जाते हैं। दोनों ही स्थितियों में उन शेयरों को बेच दें। आपको शॉर्ट टर्म फायदा होगा। ऐसे शेयरों में रिस्क कम होता है।

4. पूंजी का 60 परसेंट ही इनवेस्ट करें

शेयरों में अपनी पूंजी का 60 परसेंट ही लगाएं। कई बार शेयर बाजार का मूड भांपने में इनवेस्टर धोखा खा जाते हैं। वे ज्यादा प्रॉफिट के लालच में अपनी सारी पूंजी शेयरों में लगा देते हैं। जिन शेयरों में उन्होंने अपनी पूंजी लगाई है, अगर दुर्भाग्य से वे गिर गए तो वे घबरा जाते हैं और भविष्य में भारी नुकसान की आशंका के मद्देनजर शेयरों को बेच देते हैं। बाजार एक्सपर्ट के. के. मदान का कहना है कि अपने पास 40 परसेंट पूंजी रखना इसलिए जरूरी है कि इसके जरिए आप बाजार में रिकवरी कर सकते हैं। आपने जिन शेयरों को खरीदा है, अगर वे गिर भी गए, तो आप बाकी की 40 परसेंट पूंजी दूसरे शेयरों में लगाकर प्रॉफिट कमाने की रणनीति बना सकते हैं।

5. बड़े शेयरों को सस्ते में खरीदें

शेयर बाजार में ऐसे मौके भी आते हैं, जब बड़ी कंपनियों के शेयर बुरी तरह गिरते हैं। अगर आप थोड़ा रिस्क लेकर बजट का 30 परसेंट तक शेयरों में लगा सकते हैं तो आपको बड़े शेयरों पर नजर रखनी चाहिए। जब भी 10 से 15 परसेंट की गिरावट आए, तुरंत खरीद लें। ऐसा तब होता है, जब तकनीकी करेक्शन का दौर चलता है या विदेशी इनवेस्टर भारी मुनाफे के लिए शेयरों को गिराने का खेल खेलते हैं। ऐसा नवंबर-दिसंबर में देखने को मिल सकता है। नैक्सस इंफोटेक लिमिटेड के प्रमुख सुधीर जोश का कहना है कि अगर बड़े शेयर सस्ते में मिल जाएं, तो फिर क्या कहने! ऐसी स्थिति में कुछ ज्यादा वक्त तक शेयरों को अपने पास रख सकते हैं।

6. एफआईआई पर रखें नजर

नवंबर से दिसंबर के दौरान रिटर्न ज्यादा दिखाने के लिए फॉरेन इंस्टिट्यूशनल इनवेस्टर (एफआईआई) मुनाफा वसूली का भारी खेल खेलते हैं। इस दौरान अगर रिटेल इनवेस्टर एफआईआई की रणनीति पर ध्यान दें, तो अच्छा होगा। देखें कि एफआईआई किन शेयरों को निशाना बना रहे हैं और कितना? वे जिन शेयरों को ज्यादा बढ़ाते हैं, उन्हें उतना ही गिराने की कोशिश करते हैं ताकि ज्यादा मुनाफा मिल सके। आप उन शेयरों पर दांव मत लगाइए, जिन्हें एफआईआई ज्यादा बढ़ावा दे रहे हैं। इनवेस्टरों को कई बार लगता है कि एफआईआई इन शेयरों पर खासे मेहरबान हैं। ये नई ऊंचाइयां छुएंगे, जबकि इसका उल्टा होने में देरी नहीं होती।
-जोसफ बर्नाड

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8 key ratios while buying stocks

8 key ratios while buying stocks
LOOKING to buy stocks but you are not sure how to select them? Don't fret. We have, here, eight ratios that would make your life easier, and of course, enable you to make the best possible stock selection.

1. Ploughback or Reserves
Every year, the company divides its net profit (profits in hand after subtracting various expenses including taxes) in two portions: ploughback and dividends.

While dividends are handed out to the shareholders, ploughback is kept by the company for its future use and is included in its reserves. Ploughback is essential because, besides boosting the company’s reserves, it is a source of funds for the company’s expansion plans. Hence, if you are looking for a company with good growth prospects, check its ploughback figures. Reserves are also known as shareholders’ funds, since they belong to the shareholders. If a company’s reserves are twice its equity capital, the company can reward its shareholders with a generous bonus. Also any increase in reserves will push the share price of your share.

2. Book value per share
This ratio shows the worth of each share of a company as per the company's accounting books. It is calculated as:
Shareholders' funds
------------------------------------------------ = Book Value per share
Total quantity of equity shares issued

Shareholders' funds can be computed as such:
Total assets (equity capital to the company's reserves) less total liabilities (money owed to creditors).

Book value is an old record that uses the original purchase prices of the assets.

However, it doesn't show the present market price of the company’s assets. As a result, this ratio has a restricted use when it comes to estimating the market price of the shares, but can give you an estimate of the minimum price of the company’s shares. It will also help you judge if the share price is overpriced or under-priced.

Also read: 4 golden rules of equity investing

3. Earnings per share (EPS)
One of the most popular investment ratios, it can be computed as:
Profit Post Tax
------------------------------------------------ = EPS
Total quantity of equity shares issued

This ratio computes the company's earnings on a per share basis. Say, you own 100 shares of ABC Co., each having a face value of Rs 10. Assume the earnings per share is Rs 10 and the dividend declared is 30 per cent, or Rs 3 per share. This implies that on every share of ABC Co., you earn Rs 6 each year, but you actually get Rs 3 via dividend. The balance of Rs 4 per share goes into the ploughback (retained earnings). Had you purchased these shares at par, it implies a return of 60 per cent.

This example shows that instead of looking at the dividends received from to company as the base of investment returns, always look at earnings per share, as it is the actual indicator of the returns earned by your shares.

4. Price Earnings Ratio (P/E)
This ratio highlights the connection between the market price of a share and its EPS.
Price of the share
------------------------ = P/E
Earnings per share

It shows the degree to which earnings of a share are protected by its price. Say, the P/E is 40, it means the share price is 40 times its earnings. So if the company's EPS is constant, it will need about 40 years to make up for the purchase price of the share, after taking into account the dividends and the capital appreciation. Hence, low P/E means you will recover your money quickly.

P/E ratio shows what the market thinks about the earnings potential and future business forecast of a company. Companies with high P/E ratios are the darlings of the investors and thus enjoy a higher market rating. In order to use the P/E ratio properly, take into account the future earnings and growth projections of the company. If the current P/E ratio is low, as against the future prospects of a company, then the shares make an attractive investment option. But if the company is saddled with losses and falling sales, stay away from it, despite the low P/E ratio.

5. Dividend and yield
Dividend is the portion of the profit that is distributed amongst shareholders. Companies offering high dividends, normally don’t have much of growth to talk about. This is because the ploughback required to finance future development is insufficient. Similarly, those companies in high growth sector don’t give any dividend. Instead here they give sharp capital appreciation, which ultimately will lead to higher dividends.

So it makes much more sense to invest for capital appreciation instead of dividends. Rather it makes more sense to invest for yield, which is nothing but the association between the dividends and the market price of the shares. Yield (dividend yield) can be calculated as:

Dividend per share
----------------------------- x 100 = Yield
Market price of a share

Yield shows the returns in percentage that you can expect via dividends earned by your investment at the current market price. It is more useful than simply focusing on the dividends.

Also read: Will dividend yield stock make you rich?

6. Return of capital employed (ROCE)
ROCE is the ratio that is calculated as:
Operating profit
----------------------------------------
Capital employed (net value + debt)

To get operating profit, add old taxes paid, depreciation, special one-off expenses, and special one-off income and miscellaneous income to get the net profit. The operating profit is a far better indicator of the profits earned by the company instead of the net profit. Hence this ratio is the better indicator of the general performance of the company and the company’s operational efficiency. It is one of the most useful ratio that lets you compare amongst the companies.

7. Return on net worth (RONW)
RONW is calculated as
Net Profit
-----------------
Net Worth

This ratio gives you an idea of the returns generated by investing in the company. While ROCE is an effective measure to get a general overview of the profitability of the company’s business operations, RONW lets you gauge the returns you can earn on your investment. When used along with ROCE, you get an overview of the company’s competence, financial standing and its capacity to generate returns on shareholders’ finances and capital employed.

8. PEG ratio
PEG is an essential and extensively used ratio for calculating the inbuilt worth of a share. It helps you decide whether the share is under-priced, totally priced or overpriced. To derive the ratio, you have to associate the P/E ratio with the expected growth rate of the company. It assumes that higher the growth rate of the company, higher the P/E ratio of the company’s shares. Vice versa also holds true.

P/E
----------------------------------
Expected growth rate of the EPS of the company

In general, a PEG lesser than 0.5 is a lucrative investment opportunity. However if the PEG exceeds 1.5, it is time to sell.

These are some of the most critical ratios that must be considered when purchasing a share. Extensive reading of the financial performance of the company in newspapers and magazines will help you get all the relevant information to arrive at the correct decision.

Investing is NOT a game with only one winner

In October-November 2008, there was excessive pessimism around. In fact that period could take the cake for being one of the most challenging periods for most investors. It was a period when not just equity markets but also bank accounts were no longer considered safe. Everyday you heard noises of FMPs, liquid funds and even banks going bust and how the financial world would end soon. In fact the only safe way was to hoard cash. One currency expert even went on air saying that he was closing all his accounts at private banks and stashing his dough at State Bank of India, SBI. Suddenly people queued outside SBI branches and SBI started collecting several thousand crore of deposits every day. It was outright foolish to do so but the herd mentality was at work and the headlines and experts were screaming doom.

One smart investment banker redeemed his FMP midway falling prey to such rumors and at a discount. The FMP is up 11% today. He regretfully now says “Sometimes it’s dangerous to know many things. I would have been better off not knowing many things.”I told him that I disagree as it is all about your ability to think rationally during such times and not following all the bull thrown at you. I told him that I know of smart people who know things as well as people who do not know much about investing who have made amazing gains because of their ability to filter the noise.


On the other hand in October 2009, one is witnessing euphoria all around with the stock markets having crossed several milestones.

There are 3 key lessons or principles that equity markets have once again taught us over the last one year and they can surely come in handy when we face a similar situation sometime later in our investing life.

1st Principle

Besides investing regularly in equities (as the SIPs during these periods have given the best gains), invest a lot more confidently when no one wants to even listen to the word equity. The whole world was full of insights, research, inputs and so on about the death of equity as an asset class. There were media reports on the poor data coming from every possible front and to top it there was the Satyam scandal which made a lot of foreign and local investors doubt the integrity of Indian managements. Everyday you read about the next set of companies who could be in trouble. A friend who wanted to invest in equities just could not because all around he read that we were headed for doom. By the way he is still waiting.

There is no way to know that the stock market has bottomed out but it’s during such times of excessive pessimism that the market turn around and this was demonstrated well even during the recent turnaround on March 9, 2009.

Do not obsess over earnings and wait endlessly for clear data points. Stock markets always try to anticipate the future and are actually well ahead of significant changes in earnings and other data points. It is quite possible that earnings are lousy or take a lot of time to catch up. However a lot of people obsess over this and miss out on huge up moves. We are currently witnessing the second quarter results which seem to be quite encouraging. The recent IIP data of a 10.4% spurt advance tax collections and a host of other factors point out at GDP upgrades in the near term.

Yes there sure could be pain as the western world is still not out of woods and higher commodity prices and inflation will have interest rates inching up next year onwards. As always there will be a lot of negative factors that could pull down markets such as interest rate hikes, oil prices rising in very high inflation, sell off by hedge funds because of poor economic data coming from western countries , geo political risks (China & other threats) and others.

However there is no way to know when a correction will happen. There is no point in meaninglessly waiting for corrections. In strong bull markets, corrections are often elusive and generally do not happen, till the market has rallied significantly. From March 9, 2009, the markets are up by 100% whereas you saw only a couple of minor corrections with one caused during the budget week. In a market that has run up sharply by 100% a correction of 15-20% is quite normal but the key question is will the correction happen now or after the market crosses the previous high. I am sure no one knows the answer to this one. If a correction were to happen, don’t just say “See I knew it , I was right. I am smart.”

Continue to invest in a staggered manner.

3rd Principle

Do not underestimate the power of policymakers to effect a change. Starting late last year one saw a spate of interest rate cuts by central banks around the world injecting liquidity in the system. Besides this there were many bailout packages and policy changes that were quickly implemented. All such actions have the potential to turn things around and before actual change is visible, stock markets change direction. We have witnessed this happen.

This is one of the biggest bubbles waiting to be burst. I have explained this with a few examples and anecdotes.

35 year old Deven Desai is a frustrated man today. He has been waiting patiently to buy his dream house in Juhu for the last 3 years. He has seen many flats so far and is thoroughly disappointed at the overall transaction and deal that he is getting. He is earning Rs. 40 lakh post tax per year and is looking at buying a 3 BHK flat. He saw one where the halls and rooms were pretty small. The builder’s sales person told him “Sir, this is the last flat left. All are sold. The price also is very reasonable at Rs 15000.”Though he was not very pleased hearing the amount he still decided to go ahead considering the area and his long wait.

He asked the sales person about the size of the apartment and the net cost to him. The sales person told him that it is a 1980 sq.ft flat super built up. “What about carpet area?”, Deven enquired. “It is 1188 sq.ft. There is a 40% loading.” Deven was annoyed and said “How is loading just 40%? It is 65% minimum as the loading must be done on the carpet area and not in the reverse manner that you are calculating. If you add 65% to 1188, then it comes close to the super built up figure that you are talking about. Why do you guys calculate loading on the super built up figure? This means that my carpet area cost is Rs. 24750 which is ridiculous.”The salesperson who had a lot of attitude said “Sir .This is a common practice and everybody calculates it this way. You take it or there are many people waiting in the queue.”

Deven decided to let this go as it just did not make sense to him.

Ashok Ganesan , a sales professional faced a similar situation in Malad. He was made to believe that the price was low and that he should buy it before prices move northwards. However the loading on the carpet area was way beyond 55%. Many people are simply unaware about this computation and often ignore this. Additionally, how many people have actually measured the super built area that they have been charged for? The absence of a regulator makes real estate a perfect recipe for abuse.

There is no correct loading figure but I can’t see why it should be more than 35%. 35% is too high a number but must be calculated on the base carpet area. There is no regulatory help or any other available but you can negotiate hard on this front as there is still a lot of inventory that has to be sold. For e.g in Andheri, Mumbai, a couple of buildings in a premium 2.5-3 BHK flat complex are completely vacant for the last 12-18 months. Investors have put in money but end users have not bought in as they still cannot afford and banks are unwilling to lend as they were back in 2006 and 2007.

There is no point in paying any price because someone else will buy before you. Prices are still not low enough to spur genuine demand in the real estate market so don’t worry, you won’t be left out. The patient ones will be amply rewarded.

Finally the key take home is “Investing is not a game where there is only one winner. Everyone can win in the investing process provided one develops the ability to filter the financial noise and take prudent economic calls rather than emotional ones.”

-- Amar Pandit